Studies have shown that in predicting election outcomes political betting markets outperform polls.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump may find the current betting odds to be a stronger indicator of the reaction to the first Presidential debate than traditional polls.
Historically, bettors have had a strong track record of picking the President, only losing twice since the 1800s.
The betting market, which bookmakers can’t legally operate in the US, shifted noticeably to the right following the debate between Biden and Trump.
There is speculation in the betting markets about whether the Democrats might turn to Kamala Harris instead of Biden to spearhead their campaign.
Current 2024 US Presidential Election Odds (as of July 11th)
William Hill
- Donald Trump: 4/7
- Joe Biden: 9/2
- Kamala Harris: 11/2
- Gavin Newsom: 10/1
- Michelle Obama: 12/1
Bovada
- Donald Trump: -180
- Joe Biden: +375
- Kamala Harris: +600
- Michelle Obama: +2000
- Robert Kennedy: +4500
Accuracy of Betting Odds in Past Presidential Elections
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866. The notable upsets occurred in:
- 1948: Harry Truman (D) beat eight to one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R).
- 2016: Donald Trump overcame seven to two odds to beat Hillary Clinton (D).
In the 2020 election, Biden was the betting favorite, maintaining the leading position with most bookmakers from May through November.
Trump’s Rising Odds and Biden’s Declining Prospects
Former President Trump’s odds of returning to the White House are on an upward trajectory, while President Biden’s chances of re-election are in free fall. This decline is due to mounting scrutiny over Biden’s ability to serve another term as commander-in-chief.
Economist’s Prediction Model
As of Monday, The Economist’s prediction model showed:
- Trump: Roughly 74% chance of winning the electoral college in 2024.
- Biden: 26% chance.
The model predicts Trump will secure 310 electoral votes compared to 228 for Biden. In their first face-off in 2020, Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
Trends Post-Debate
Since the debate on June 27, Trump’s chances have improved by three points, while Biden’s dropped by the same amount. Trump’s lead has been consistent, with his odds climbing steadily since early June.
Polymarket’s Prediction
Prediction market Polymarket’s forecast on Tuesday showed:
- Trump: 63% chance of winning.
- Biden: 19%.
On the debate day, Biden’s odds were at 33%.
Recent polling data reflects Trump’s growing lead over Biden post-debate.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted from June 29 to July 2 found Trump would beat Biden 48% to 42% in a two-person matchup. This represents the widest lead in Journal surveys since late 2021, up from a two-point lead in February.
Based in London, Natasha is a former sports journalist with experience working for some of the biggest athletes & brands in the world of sports and iGaming.
As the 2024 presidential election approaches, many Americans are already speculating on who the frontrunners will be. Two names that have been consistently mentioned are former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden. Both men have had their fair share of ups and downs in the political arena, and their potential rematch in the 2024 election has garnered a lot of attention.
When it comes to the odds for the 2024 presidential election, it’s important to consider a variety of factors. One of the most significant factors is the current political climate. As of now, President Biden’s approval ratings have been fluctuating, with some polls showing a decline in support for his administration. This could potentially impact his chances of winning re-election in 2024.
On the other hand, former President Trump still maintains a strong base of supporters who are loyal to him. Despite his loss in the 2020 election, Trump has continued to be a prominent figure in the Republican party and has hinted at a potential run for president in 2024. His popularity among conservative voters could give him an edge in the upcoming election.
Another factor to consider is the state of the economy. Historically, a strong economy has been a key factor in determining the outcome of presidential elections. If the economy continues to improve leading up to the 2024 election, this could benefit President Biden and increase his chances of winning re-election.
It’s also important to consider potential challengers from within each party. While Trump and Biden may be the frontrunners at this point, there could be other candidates who emerge as strong contenders in the coming years. It will be interesting to see how the field of candidates shapes up as we get closer to the election.
Overall, the odds for the 2024 presidential election are still uncertain at this point. Both Trump and Biden have their strengths and weaknesses, and a lot can change between now and election day. As voters, it’s important to stay informed and engaged in the political process to make an informed decision when it comes time to cast our ballots.
